METHODOLOGY
How we reach every conclusion
An assessment is only as good as its sources and the judgment applied to them. This page explains where our information comes from, how we grade it, how we score risk and who signs it off, so you can weigh our conclusions yourself.
Three layers, always verified
Open sources registered in an approved list: official advisories and gazettes, local and international media, transport and utility operators.
Reports from CSSG officers on post across Caracas and Miranda and from our professional network elsewhere. Handled ethically and within the law; sources are protected.
Public social media and messaging channels, where events usually surface first. Nothing from this layer is reported until another source confirms it.
The Admiralty code
Every item carries two marks: how reliable the source is (A–F) and how credible the information is (1–6). “B2” means a usually reliable source reporting information that is probably true.
| Source reliability | |
|---|---|
| A | Completely reliable |
| B | Usually reliable |
| C | Fairly reliable |
| D | Not usually reliable |
| E | Unreliable |
| F | Reliability cannot be judged |
| Information credibility | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Confirmed by other sources |
| 2 | Probably true |
| 3 | Possibly true |
| 4 | Doubtful |
| 5 | Improbable |
| 6 | Truth cannot be judged |
Confidence in each conclusion
| HIGH | Confirmed by at least two independent sources, or observed by our own personnel. |
|---|---|
| MODERATE | A credible source, not yet independently confirmed. |
| LOW | Unconfirmed. Reported only because the possible impact justifies a warning. |
FMEA under ISO 31000
We score each risk with a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), within the ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework and the ASIS ORM.1:2017 standard. Impact weighs more than probability because a rare event with severe consequences deserves more attention than a frequent minor one.
Risk index = (Probability × 0.4) + (Impact × 0.6)
| Index | Level |
|---|---|
| 0–25 | Low |
| 26–50 | Moderate |
| 51–75 | High |
| 76–100 | Critical |
From report to bulletin
Collection: the CECOM gathers reports from all three layers around the clock.
Verification: each item is graded and cross-checked before it is used.
Analysis: we assess what changed and what it means for people, sites and movements.
Sign-off: an analyst reviews and signs every bulletin and assessment.
Delivery: the bulletin goes out at 06:30, Venezuela time; urgent events go out as alerts.
What we promise readers
We report operational impact, not political opinion. That protects the reader’s decision and our team in the country.
Every report opens with the bottom line and closes with what it means for your operation.
We use AI to process and organize large volumes of information. The judgment, verification and sign-off always belong to our analysts.
If we get something wrong, we correct it, date the correction and tell subscribers in the next bulletin. Report an error to gerencia@globalservices-ven.com.
Our sanctions and regulatory notes describe security consequences. They never replace advice from counsel.
See the method applied
Dirección
Chacao, Caracas, Venezuela.